• 所為非所想?農戶風險管理意愿與行為的悖離分析
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    國家自然科學基金面上項目“基于動態模型平均的區間型預測技術及在農產品期貨市場的應用研究”(71771101);中央高?;究蒲袠I務費專項基金資助(2662020JGPYR04)。


    The Paradox Between Farmers’Willingness and Adoption of Risk Management ——A Case Study of Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning,and Hubei Province 
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      摘要:

      實現農戶風險管理意愿與行為統一是降低農業風險對農戶農業生產負面影響的重要途徑。利用2018年東北三省和湖北省種植大戶的調查數據,從自然風險與市場風險兩方面,對農戶風險管理的意愿、行為及其悖離進行分析,并探究形成悖離的原因。研究發現:對于自然風險,大部分農戶使用了有效的風險管理工具,但風險管理意愿不高;農戶的市場風險管理行為極為少見,與之相悖的是,農戶具有較高的市場風險管理意愿。結果表明,風險管理實際行為控制、風險管理執行意愿和風險管理外部環境是影響農戶自然風險管理意愿與行為悖離的主要因素;此外,農戶對農業保險缺乏了解,以及目前農業保險存在的不足也是導致此悖離的重要原因;風險管理執行意愿和風險管理外部環境是影響農戶市場風險管理意愿與行為悖離的主要因素。此外,農戶獲取信息渠道不足,對市場風險管理工具缺乏了解,甚至存在明顯的誤解與不信任也是導致農戶市場風險管理意愿與行為悖離的重要原因。因此,為了有效實現農戶風險管理意愿與行為的統一,應健全農業保險的推廣機制,加強市場風險管理的宣傳,擴大“保險+期貨”的試點,發揮新型主體的帶動作用。

      Abstract:

      Risk is an inherent part of agriculture and thus unifying households’ risk management willingness with their behavior is the crucial way to reduce the negative influence of agriculture risk on agricultural production. Collecting data of large crop-land farmers in Northeast China and Hubei province in 2018,this study analyzes the willingness,behavior and the deviation of farmers’ risk management from the perspective of natural risk and market risk and explores the causes of the deviation. The empirical results show that most farmers have adopted a management strategy for natural risk,but they have lower risk management willingness. In contrast,the farmers’ market risk management behavior is extremely scarce,but they have higher risk management willingness. The results show that the actual behavior control of risk management,the willingness to implement risk management and the external environment of risk management are the main factors causing the paradox between the willingness and behavior of natural risk management of farmers. In addition,the lack of understanding of agricultural insurance and the existing deficiencies of agricultural insurance are also important reasons for the paradox. The farmers’ readiness for implementation of risk management and the external environment are the main factors causing the paradox between farmers’ market risk management willingness and their behavior. Besides,farmers’ lack of access to information,lack of understanding of market risk management tools,and even obvious misunderstanding and distrust are also important reasons. Therefore,in order to unify farmers’ risk management willingness with their behavior,we need to strengthen government publicity and guidance for market risk management,improve the mechanism for popularizing agricultural insurance,expand trials of insurance plus futures.

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    尚 燕,熊 濤.所為非所想?農戶風險管理意愿與行為的悖離分析[J].華中農業大學學報(社科),2020,(5):19-28

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    • 收稿日期:2019-09-20
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    • 在線發布日期: 2020-09-12
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